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Methodology

Net Interstate Migration — Methodology and Sources

Last reviewed: 2026-05-17

What this measures

Net flow of people between states per financial year. Positive = the state gained residents from other states; negative = lost them. Doesn't include international migration (that's a separate ABS component).

How values are derived

Sum of four quarterly ABS 3101.0 observations (Sep + Dec + Mar + Jun) for each FY. Vic = column 7, NSW = column 3, QLD = column 11 of the Population change components XLSX.

The Vic story

Vic was a structural net winner of interstate migration through the mid-2010s (+11K to +18K per year), driven by Melbourne's reputation as a destination. The COVID years flipped it dramatically:

  • 2019-20: -3K (Vic's first net loss in over a decade)
  • 2020-21: -36K (the lockdown exodus)
  • 2021-22: -31K (continued)
  • 2022-23: -6K (recovery)
  • 2023-24: -4K (back near zero)

QLD has been the structural beneficiary across the entire period — gaining 7-40K per year, hitting record highs during the COVID period as people relocated north. NSW has been losing residents to other states for the entire decade.

Caveats

  • Interstate migration is volatile quarter-to-quarter; using FY annual sums smooths it
  • Doesn't capture intra-state movement (Melbourne to regional Vic, for example)
  • ABS revises historical quarterly figures occasionally; the latest release supersedes earlier ones

Sources

The Victoria Ledger

Victoria's last decade across fiscal, tax, workforce, capital, services, crime, and economy, plotted as continuous time series. Every figure traceable to an official primary source.

Last refreshed 2026-06-11. Data refreshes follow each new release from the underlying agencies.

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