GSP per Capita — Methodology and Sources
What this measures
Gross State Product (GSP) per resident, in $AUD per capita. The headline measure of how productive each state's economy is per person. Defaults to inflation-adjusted (FY 2023-24 base) with NSW and QLD overlays so the cross-state comparison is the immediate read.
How values are derived
ABS 5220.0 GSP current prices ($m) ÷ ABS 3101.0 ERP at 30 June (persons)
Then optionally deflated by RBA G1 CPI (FY mean of quarterly) to FY 2023-24 dollars.
GSP current prices is the right numerator (not chain volumes) because the population denominator is also in current values — like dividing this year's revenue by this year's headcount. Chain-volume GSP would mix base years incorrectly.
Why GSP, not GDP per capita
GDP is national; GSP is state-level — they're directly analogous. State-level GDP per capita comparisons across NSW/Vic/QLD use GSP. Australia's total GDP per capita uses different ABS series and isn't shown on this chart.
Why per capita, not total GSP
The government's headline economic claim is that Victoria has the "fastest-growing economy of any state" over the decade. That refers to total GSP — and it is largely a population story: Victoria added residents faster than most states, so the overall economic pie grew even as each slice barely moved. Per-capita GSP is the "are people actually better off?" test, and on that measure Victoria's real output per person grew the slowest of the three eastern states (+7.4%, against NSW +10.4% and Queensland +16.0%, 2014-15 to 2023-24). A bigger economy spread across many more people is not the same as rising prosperity — which is why this chart shows output per resident, not the headline total.
Caveats
- Mining-state GSP per capita (WA, NT, QLD) is mechanically inflated by capital-intensive resource industries that have few workers. Vic, with a diversified service economy, looks lower in resource-boom years even when its labor income is comparable
- GSP isn't a measure of welfare. A higher GSP per capita doesn't mean residents are better off — just that more economic value is being produced per resident
- 2023-24 figures are revised; ABS sometimes revises GSP by a percent or two in later releases
On the "debt vs growth" comparison
Elsewhere on the site we contrast the input (Victoria's debt-to-GSP, the heaviest of the eastern states) against the outcome (real output per person, which grew the slowest of the three: Vic +7.4%, NSW +10.4%, QLD +16.0% over 2014-15 to 2023-24). Two honesty guardrails apply:
- It is a descriptive contrast, not a causal claim. The data shows Victoria took on the most debt and recorded the weakest per-person growth; it does not establish that the debt caused the slow growth, or that lower debt caused faster growth elsewhere.
- Queensland's stronger growth is substantially a commodity effect. Queensland's per-capita output and its low debt both lean heavily on a record coal-and-gas royalty windfall (e.g. ~$15bn in coal royalties in 2022-23 on commodity-price spikes), not necessarily superior management. The honest reading is "Victoria borrowed the most and has the least growth to show for it," not "Queensland is better run."