Major Capital Projects — Methodology and Sources
What this measures
For each named major capital project, the initial publicly announced cost at the year of announcement vs the most recently published cost (or final cancellation cost where applicable). The overrun = current − announced.
Why nominal, not inflation-adjusted
The brief and political discourse use nominal cost language ("the project blew out by $X bn"). Inflation-adjusting muddies the headline number that policymakers, journalists, and voters actually argue about. Each figure is in nominal dollars at the year it was published.
What counts as "announced"
The first official dollar figure attached to the project from a state or federal government source. This is sometimes:
- The pre-election commitment (LXR was a 2014 ALP election promise at $6bn)
- The federal–state joint announcement (Melbourne Airport Rail in 2018)
- The Premier's announcement (SRL in 2018; Commonwealth Games in April 2022)
Where the announcement was a range, the lower bound is used.
What counts as "current"
The most recent published cost estimate at time of writing, sourced from one of:
- Latest Vic Budget Paper 4 (capital programme)
- Latest VAGO Major Projects Performance Report
- Major Transport Infrastructure Authority quarterly update
- Federal-state announcement update
For cancelled projects (Commonwealth Games and the East West Link), "current" is the actual cost incurred in withdrawing — settlement payouts plus sunk planning, contract, and procurement costs — per the Auditor-General's reports. For the Commonwealth Games, the government's $6-7bn "would have cost if it went ahead" figure used to justify cancellation was a projection, not an incurred cost, and was contested by VAGO; it is not what this chart shows.
Per-project sources
| Project | Announced (year) | Current (year) | Source(s) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suburban Rail Loop East (Cheltenham–Box Hill) | $30bn (2018) | $34.5bn | Premier's announcement Aug 2018 (range $30–50bn for full Loop); SRL East business case Aug 2021; VAGO SRL East assurance Oct 2022; Commonwealth Infrastructure Australia review 2023 |
| Suburban Rail Loop North + West (announced, unfunded) | $20bn (2018) | unfunded | Same Aug 2018 announcement covered all three stages at $30–50bn total. SRL North + West share is the remainder above SRL East's funded $30bn floor. No funded business case as at 2025. |
| Metro Tunnel | $11bn (2015) | $13.5bn | 2015-16 Budget; latest MTIA cost update |
| West Gate Tunnel | $5.5bn (2014) | $10.5bn | Transurban proposal 2014; PFAS-soil settlement 2020-21; BP4 2025-26 |
| North East Link | $16.5bn (2017) | $26.1bn | Business case 2018; VAGO 2024 MPP Report |
| Level Crossing Removal | $6bn (2014) | $18.5bn | ALP 2014 election commitment (50 crossings); expanded scope to 110; BP4 2025-26 |
| Melbourne Airport Rail | $5bn (2018) | $13bn | Joint announcement May 2018; latest paused-project estimate 2024 |
| Commonwealth Games 2026 | $2.6bn (2022) | $589m spent (2023-24) | Premier's announcement April 2022; VAGO Withdrawal from 2026 Commonwealth Games report, March 2024 confirms the state paid $380m to Commonwealth Games Federation under the settlement agreement plus additional sunk costs, totalling at least $589m for nothing delivered. The often-cited $6-7bn "would have cost" figure was the government's contested projection at the moment of cancellation, not an actual incurred cost — this chart shows the latter. |
| East West Link (cancelled) | $5.3bn (2014) | $1.1bn spent (2014-15) | Stage 1 contract ($5.3bn) signed by the Napthine government weeks before the Nov 2014 election; cancelled by the incoming Andrews government in June 2015. VAGO East West Link Project report, Dec 2015 put the total cost to the state at more than $1.1bn (planning, development, procurement and termination) for a road never built — including a $339m settlement with the East West Connect consortium, partially offset by ~$320m in expected property sales (net ~$780m). |
How cancelled projects are shown
Two projects on this chart were cancelled — the 2026 Commonwealth Games and the East West Link. Each row shows the announced cost as a red bar (cancelled status colour), and surfaces the actual cost incurred (Commonwealth Games $589m; East West Link $1.1bn) in the chart tooltip and the chart's summary line. Cancelled projects are not included in the aggregate overrun percentage at the top of the chart — that aggregate would be distorted by a non-comparable "current cost" that represents wasted cancellation spend rather than a project's running total. Cancelled spend is called out separately so it's neither hidden nor counted as if the project delivered. Together the two cancellations cost Victoria roughly $1.7bn for nothing built.
Why SRL is shown as two rows
The Suburban Rail Loop was announced in August 2018 as a single three-stage program (East, North, West) with a $30–50bn cost range. Only SRL East (Cheltenham–Box Hill) has been costed in a business case, funded, and put into construction. SRL North and SRL West remain announced but have no published business case, no funding commitment, and no construction start date.
A single SRL row would compare an unlike scope (full Loop announced vs SRL East current cost) and visually read as if the project came in under budget. Splitting the row into "SRL East" (funded, $30bn → $34.5bn) and "SRL N+W" (announced $20bn, unfunded) preserves both the cost overrun on the funded portion and the missing two-thirds of the announced project.
The aggregate overrun figure at the top of the chart excludes SRL N+W and other "in planning" rows, so the percentage reflects projects that have actually been delivered or are in construction.
Caveats
- The 'announced' year is a judgement call between project conception, feasibility study, and formal funding commitment. Where reasonable people would differ, the methodology favours the earliest official dollar figure
- Major projects shift scope over their lifespan — the LXR program grew from 50 to 110 crossings, which mechanically grows the cost without it being a 'blowout' in the pure pejorative sense. The chart presents both numbers; reader can judge
- Some projects (West Gate Tunnel) had the state and a private partner sharing risk, with the original $5.5bn being the Transurban contribution and later overruns largely covered by the state
- Cancellation costs (Commonwealth Games) include event payouts and venue contracts; not directly comparable to ongoing project capex
Verification status
Each project's figures are hand-transcribed from public records — VAGO reports, budget papers and official announcements — with a per-project citation in the table above. This is the one metric on the site sourced by manual transcription rather than automated extraction, because there is no single dataset of major-project costs; each figure comes from a different document.